Why Climate Visa Lottery Schemes Are Not the Answer (Foreign Policy)

“The world’s first climate visa lottery came from Tuvalu, but it won’t be the last. The model is politically convenient: low cost, low commitment, and high PR value. But governing human mobility through chance is a dangerous precedent.

As climate impacts deepen, demand for protection will grow. We must resist the allure of lotteries because they allow governments to gesture at action without building infrastructure for equity or responsibility. We need to co-design rights-based pathways with climate-threatened communities, invest in adaptation to reduce forced migration, and address the structural inequalities that underpin the climate crisis.

The future of human mobility will be shaped not by who wins the next draw, but by whether we choose to replace chance with justice.”